A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
