The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a critical journey to the US capital to meet American leader Donald Trump. This marks the first face-to-face encounter for the two leaders after months of escalating strains and heated rhetoric.
Agenda for Talks
The situation in Venezuela, narcotics trade, oil, regional stability, and American military actions on alleged narco-boats are set to be high on the agenda when they meet at the White House on the scheduled day.
A History of Strained Relations
Although the two men were polite in a telephone conversation after a January American action, Petro has subsequently said he feels there is a "serious risk" of military action against Colombia. Trump, for his part, has previously remarked that a military operation in Colombia "sounds good".
The upcoming meeting follows months of the two presidents trading barbs. Petro has often criticised repeated US strikes on suspected drugs boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the US administration's border policies.
"His stance shifted," the US President was quoted as saying prior to the Washington meeting.
Points of Contention
On the US side, Trump has accused Petro's administration of not doing enough to halt the trafficking of narcotics heading north, and has vowed to extend strikes to terrestrial objectives throughout the region.
But, the acrimony seemed to dissipate following a "cordial" phone call involving the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later described as an complete reversal "from both sides".
Mediating Role
Per diplomatic sources, one man – Rand Paul – was pivotal in setting up the dialogue. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our relations were going in the wrong way," the senator reportedly. "And I'd like to see our relationship to improve."
Regional Stability and the Guerrilla Group
Ahead of Tuesday's visit, Colombian indicated that much of the conversation would focus on shared US and Colombian worries over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an long frontier.
A significant portion of that frontier is under the sway of the ELN. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, controls drug trafficking, racketeering, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly works with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.
For Trump, addressing the challenge of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring security for US firms engaged in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts point out that the ELN has the capacity to spoil investment plans by targeting foreign investors and staff, as it has in the past done in Colombia.
Drug War Cooperation
An similarly urgent issue for the two presidents will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global biggest producer of the drug. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a halt on information exchange with US security agencies after Trump's threats.
The US has, conversely, formally listed Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating drug trafficking. It has also imposed sanctions on figures in Petro's government, encompassing the leader and members of his family.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," said a analyst. "Any move to sever Colombian intelligence could also weaken all enforcement efforts."
Possible Scenarios
Despite multiple issues for collaboration, the potential for a clash exists. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avert Trump's anger... But one never knows."
For the Colombian leader, even a contentious encounter could be advantageous. His time in office concludes in the coming months, and the results of the meeting could influence the political future of his chosen candidate.
"In some ways, he's kind of in a win-win situation," said a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well undermines opposition arguments... If talks sour, he's defending Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."
