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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners fading and recent underperformers improving in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still